The Afghan Dilemma in Pakistan – Journal – DAWN.COM – DAWN

Once again, Pakistan has warned the Taliban authorities in Kabul of the consequences of attacks carried out by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from across the border.

In the strongest statements by Pakistani military and government leaders since the Taliban returned to power two years ago, Kabul has been ordered to ensure that Afghan soil is not used to carry out terrorist attacks against another country. It was the latest indication of growing tensions in relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Two back-to-back military statements last week expressed serious concerns about the safe havens and freedom of action available to the TTP in Afghanistan.

The first came after the visit to Quetta by the army chief, General Asim Munir, who called on the Afghan interim government to respect the commitments made in the Doha agreement (forged between the United States and the Taliban in 2020). A remark attributed to him warned of an effective response from the country’s security forces if the attacks continued.

The second statement was released after a Corps Commanders Conference last Monday which stated that available sanctuaries for terrorists from the banned TTP and availability of latest weapons for terrorists were noted (by the conference) as major reasons affecting (the) security of Pakistan.

Defense Minister Khawaja Asifs’ remarks were equally harsh. He accused Kabul of failing to meet its commitments and said Afghanistan was not fulfilling its obligations as a neighboring country and not protecting the Doha agreement. He said the terrorists who shed the blood of Pakistanis were finding refuge on Afghan soil, and warned that Pakistan would use all possible resources and measures in response.

This series of statements was triggered by the terrorist attack on an army garrison in the town of Zhob in Balochistan on July 12, which claimed the lives of nine soldiers. The same day, an attack in Sui resulted in three other military casualties.

These were just the latest acts of violence in the area of ​​the province close to the border with Afghanistan, where the TTP has expanded its activities from its main theater of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. By expanding its operations to the Pakhtun part of Balochistan, the banned group has increased the security threat to a province already facing violence from Baloch militants.

The country should consider policy options that elicit a response to its security concerns from the Taliban.

In fact, there has been a marked escalation in terrorist attacks targeting Pakistani security forces since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. A Pakistani Defense Ministry report leaked to the media in May said Kabul unwilling to act against the TTP, its regrouping in Afghanistan after the Taliban came to power posed a growing threat to Pakistan’s security.

Successive reports by the UN Security Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team have concluded that the TTP has arguably benefited all foreign extremist groups in Afghanistan the most from the Taliban takeover.

Attacks by the TTP increased and became even more brazen after its ceasefire with the government collapsed in November 2022. The short-lived ceasefire was itself a futile attempt by Pakistani authorities to end the armed groups’ 14-year war against Pakistan. A wave of violence followed.

In one of the worst terrorist incidents, the TTP attacked a mosque within police lines in Peshawar in December, killing more than 100 and shaking the country. Then too serious warnings were issued by Pakistani officials to the Taliban authorities. But in vain.

Several rounds of talks with Taliban officials also yielded no results. During these talks, the Taliban leaders acknowledged the presence of the TTP in their country (which they do not do publicly), offered assurances to restrict them but asked for time to achieve this. They also argued that containing the TTP was a matter of capability, not commitment. But Islamabad’s patience is at an end.

A high-level Pakistani delegation was sent to Kabul in February with a one-point agenda: to impress upon Taliban leaders Pakistan’s red line on terrorist attacks from Afghan soil and secure a firm commitment from Kabul to curb the TTP and deny it the sanctuary its fighters enjoy there. During these talks, the Taliban leaders requested financial assistance, reportedly to disarm and resettle TTP fighters and their families, estimated at around 5,000, away from the border with Pakistan. But all this was for nothing.

This leaves Pakistan in a difficult position on an issue with serious ramifications for the country’s security. What are his options? To issue public warnings and hope that this would incite the Taliban to react? This hasn’t worked so far and can’t give a different result than the past.

No strategy can be based on hope. Do what Afghan Taliban leaders frequently ask and re-engage the TTP in talks? It was a disaster last time around and backfired on the country, the consequences of which it now has to deal with. The talks broke down when it became clear that the TTP demands were not negotiable.

They included the withdrawal of Pakistani military forces from the border region, the reversal of the merger of Fatas with the KP, and the imposition of Sharia in certain areas of the KP. Pakistani military officials have rightly ruled out the talks in recognition of the past blunder.

Should Pakistan consider strikes against terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan if the Taliban do not act against the TTP? Undeclared kinetic actions have already been taken by Pakistan, targeting the TTP and eliminating some senior leaders. But this approach is unsustainable and has obvious risks and drawbacks.

There are other deterrents (and incentives) in the country’s political toolbox that need to be carefully considered in order to both persuade the Taliban leadership and increase the cost of non-cooperation for them. Islamabad must also work on a regional option. It should develop a coordinated regional strategy to bring collective pressure to bear on Kabul.

After all, security is a concern for all of Afghanistan’s neighbours, even if their other interests vary. The greatest convergence is between Pakistan and China, which underscores the importance of the Pakistan-China-Afghanistan trilateral forum to raise and resolve security issues related to terrorist groups based in Afghanistan. What is clear is that Pakistan’s current Afghan policy needs to be reviewed and overhauled to more effectively protect its security interests.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Posted in Dawn, July 24, 2023