It’s shaping up to be an exciting and competitive awards season for documentaries. “All beauty and bloodshed” is the big favorite for the Oscar at the time of this writing, but precursor prices have taken different directions. Ahead are the Feb. 25 Producers Guild of America Awards, where “All the Beauty” is absent from the non-fiction lineup. So which film will win instead?

It’s a three-way race according to the combined predictions of over 1,000 Gold Derby users. “fire of love” is in the lead with odds of 5/1 and support of 12 out of 18 Expert journalists we interviewed major media outlets, seven of the 12 Gold Derby Editors16 of our 24 main usersand 14 of our Top 24 stars. The film, which explores the life and death of a married volcanologist couple, recently won the Directors Guild Awardso it’s a good start in the industry.

However, this clashes with the film which beat at the BAFTA Awards: “Navalny“, the real-life thriller about the plot to kill russian dissident Alexei Navalny. The film feels particularly urgent since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. That, combined with its BAFTA win, puts it in a good position to upset. He currently ranks second with odds of 11/2 and the backing of four pundits, three editors, six from our Top 24 and eight All-Stars.

The third film with a good chance of winning according to our predictions is “All That Breathes,” the Sundance and Cannes award winner about Indian brothers caring for Delhi’s struggling kite population. Two Experts, two Editors, two from our Top 24 and two All-Stars predict this film. The three favorites are also nominated for the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. The other four PGA nominees in this race were snubbed by the academy: “Descendant”, “Retrograde”, “The Territory” and “Nothing Compares”.

So what does a PGA Award mean for the Oscar race? Since the award was first presented in 2007, only seven PGA winners have won the Oscar. The two groups have lined up for the past two consecutive years (“My Octopus Teacher” from 2020 and “Summer of Soul” from 2021), but for the previous three years the PGA winner hasn’t even been nominated. at the Oscars (2017’s “Jane”, “Won’t You be My Neighbor?” from 2018 and “Apollo 11” from 2019). It is therefore not guaranteed that this prize will go to one of the Oscar nominees. But when the PGA winner East nominated for the Oscar, it also tends to win the academy’s documentary honor.

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