Explained | Will the G-20 agree on a joint communiqué? – The Hin

The story so far: With about 50 days to go until the G-20 summit in New Delhi, Sherpas (senior staff of heads of state and government) and negotiators from the various G-20 ministerial meetings and working groups have not been able to issue a single joint communiqué so far. Instead, given the stance of Russia and China to oppose the paragraphs on the war in Ukraine contained in the statements that have been released so far, India has been forced to release a series of summaries and results from the President in the various meetings. These include the three meetings of all-powerful G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors, those on tourism, education, labor, crime and digital security and even the space economy. Is there still a chance of a joint statement or leaders’ statement being issued at the G-20 summit in India on September 9-10?

Why is a joint release important?

Since its creation in 1999 and its transformation into a summit at the level of leaders in 2008, the G-20 grouping of the world’s largest economies has always succeeded in finding consensus within countries and issuing a joint declaration at the end of each summit. If it did not take place in New Delhi in September, it would be an ugly first for the grouping, and could even raise questions about whether the G-20 is sustainable in its current form. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, G-8 leaders suspended Russia, upgrading the group to the G-7. However, the G-20 summit in Brisbane, Australia that year managed to issue a joint statement without mentioning the Crimean conflict, and even managed a family photo with all the leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. In 2022, Indonesia’s G-20 Presidency faced tense moments as the declaration was negotiated until the very last moment of the summit. Mr Putin was not present and no family photos were allowed, but he managed to issue a document. During his tenure as President, India wants the best possible outcome at the G-20 summit, and that is why its negotiators on the Sherpa track, who are bringing together the outcome document, are exerting sustained efforts to ensure a resolution of the impasse over Ukraine.

Why did the current presidency continue with the Bali paragraphs in its documents?

Indian officials argue that a lot of hard work went into formulating the Bali paragraphs, and so they were imported into India’s G-20 documents. They say the Bali wording can be broken down into three parts, the references to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions deploring Russia’s war in Ukraine, which come from the UN and cannot be changed. Second, the statement that most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine refers to International Monetary Fund (IMF) conventions for the qualifiers where most means 62.5% or 12 of the 20 G-20 members. Third, the use of Prime Minister Modis’ phrase This era is no war is universal and does not refer to any particular country or war. Meanwhile, the added line that the G-20 is not a forum for security issues, but for economic issues arising from security issues, such as the impact of the war in Ukraine on fuel, food and fertilizer prices, is irrefutable.

Indian Sherpa Amitabh Kant also clarified that developing countries were not the cause of the conflict in Ukraine, nor is war a priority for India at the G-20. Instead, India wants to leave the intractable issues for last, keeping the focus on the induction of the African Union as a member of the G-20, development goals, digital public infrastructure, gender-focused empowerment, multilateral development bank reform and other priorities.

Why do Russia and China oppose each other?

Russia and China oppose language on Ukraine, even though it is taken from last year’s Bali G-20 document they signed. Both countries have now refused to endorse the Bali paragraph(s) at every G-20 meeting under India’s chairmanship, albeit for different reasons. Russia says the language used in Bali is no longer true because it does not include increased US and European military support for Ukraine, nor the increased sanctions against Russia that followed. China said it does not believe the G-20, essentially an economic forum, should discuss geopolitical issues as it has not for the past two decades, pointing to the Bali declaration as an exception. An additional issue could be South Africa’s footnote at the last G-20 labor ministers’ meeting in Indore which ended on Friday, which insists that the Sherpas did not conclude talks on the Bali paragraph(s), indicating that unless this is resolved soon, the issues surrounding Ukraine could see more pushback from other countries towards India’s consensus hopes. On the positive side, Russia in the last two meetings seems to have accepted Bali’s more generic second paragraph which talks about conflict issues in general, indicating some progress.

What are the chances of a joint release now?

With a number of ministerial meetings, including the 3rd Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, the Sherpa track will launch the negotiations on the draft Delhi declaration from August 1 and attempt to pin down all areas of divergence, including US-China squabbles over debt sustainability, privacy issues over digital public infrastructure, etc., and iron out the most significant differences over the war in Ukraine. Officials say that, given the political nature of the Ukrainian issue, as well as developments in the war on the ground that are changing the situation, there may be no point in finalizing something that could become stale. Accordingly, until an acceptable alternative language is defined, they have left a fictitious reference to geopolitical issues in the final document of the G-20 Leaders’ Statement being prepared, while they finalize the rest of the document on other issues.

In addition, Indian negotiators have considered suggestions from other countries, including its two other Troika colleagues: Indonesia, which hosted the G-20 in 2022, and Brazil, which will host the G-20 in 2024. A draft circulated by Brazil in June suggesting recognizing the Bali consensus and moving on from the Ukrainian conflict was rejected, as was a longer Russian alternative draft. Much will now depend on the daunting task of leaders, including Prime Minister Modi.

And all eyes will be on whether Mr Modi undertakes a trip to Russia and Ukraine like Indonesian President Jokowi did last year, or whether he is able to make progress at the BRICS summit in Cape Town in late August, given that Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa are all G-20 members, not to mention the last-minute diplomacy he may have to exert closer to the G-20 summit him. -even.